Nairobi Food Delivery Launch Assessment

Top-down market sizing, unit economics and go/no-go view.

Market Size (Top-down)

Assumptions: 5.5M population, 32% target online users, 1.7 orders/month, avg basket $8.2.

TAM: ~$294M/yr GMV | SAM: ~$88M/yr | SOM Y1 target: ~$8.8M/yr

Unit Economics per Order

Revenue: take-rate + delivery fee = $2.05

Costs: courier payout + support + promo + payment processing = $1.78

Contribution margin/order: $0.27 (+13.2%)

Launch Decision

Recommendation: Controlled Launch (YES) in high-density zones with strict promo discipline and courier utilization targets.

  • Success KPIs: contribution margin/order, on-time rate, 30-day reorder, courier utilization, cancellation rate.
  • Failure signals: negative CM beyond month 4, late deliveries >15%, reorder <20%.